O/T Potential lock down?

[shrimperteer]

Rather than put stuff like this up, research it yourself and make sure you know what you are on about before posting.

I do agree, but the irony in these words coming from you is staggering

[BerlinWaller]

Rather than put stuff like this up, research it yourself and make sure you know what you are on about before posting.

I do agree, but the irony in these words coming from you is staggering

Glad to see you here after another win as well. Must have missed your positive response on the match thread though.

[shrimperteer]

Mortality rate is likely to be in the region of 0.5%, possibly less.
Probably around 60% will catch it.

That's about 195,000 people who will die due to COVID-19 and indeed, most will be elderly and/or with pre-existing conditions.

But, most of those 195,000 will be treated in hospital. As will about one million others who are admitted but recover. That would lead to many other people with 'recoverable conditions' dying unnecessarily, such as someone in a car crash who can't be admitted because ICU beds are all full.

That is the problem.

But what about the people dying at home from illness and disease because they can not get treatment due to Covid? The people taking their lives because of poor mental health, financial ruin and other issues resulting from lock downs.

Would the people who have sadly died in the spring have survived a flu season?

Are the hospitals full?

The fact is, people with a lot more detailed numbers than you will be taking this all into account before advising the government (whether they take that advice, who knows). They know exactly what proportion of the 65'000 excess have died of, how it compares to previous years etc. Whether that be Covid or indirectly through not being able to access the right care, increase in suicide, increased rates of poverty etc.
On the other hand, they could just give you the day's newspapers, access to Facebook and an abacus and let you to come up with the policy advice.

The thing people haven't seemed to twig yet is this virus is awful, is going to continue being awful and there are only awful outcomes to it. We just have to hope that Bozo and his organ grinder manage to find the least awful path through it.

[shrimperteer]

Rather than put stuff like this up, research it yourself and make sure you know what you are on about before posting.

I do agree, but the irony in these words coming from you is staggering

Glad to see you here after another win as well. Must have missed your positive response on the match thread though.

I'm not on here 24 hours a day like you you [Behave. Children read this].

[BerlinWaller]

An interesting pie chart

https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status ... 32769?s=19

[KenH]

An interesting pie chart

https://twitter.com/latimeralder/status ... 32769?s=19

That's "with" draconion restrictions. How many covid deaths would there be if we ignored it and let it spread like wildfire?

[BerlinWaller]

Sweden are doing ok aren't they?

The average age of those who have sadly lost their lives is 82.4 according to researchers today.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/131 ... 39009?s=19

Nick Hancock boozing away past the 10pm curfew last night and a SMP getting away with calling a journey on the train down to London whilst having the virus a "blip".

[MFC-Manc]

Not sure where this “Sweden is doing better” comes from, from the official numbers they are nearly as bad as us.

Nobody trusts the government now after there various fiascos, which has allowed “bob” off Facebook and Twitter who is suddenly a virologist to become believable.

As said above this is a serious disease to those who develop symptoms and if left to run through the country could cause 100’s of thousands of deaths.

People need to take responsibility and protect each other, instead of putting all there efforts into bill gates and 5g.

[Keith]

Sweden are doing ok aren't they?

Do you get all your 'evidence' from Twitter?

No. Sweden are in a mess.Far more deaths & infections than neighbours Norway & Finland combined (which is a similar population & demographic).

Sweden: Population 10.3 million
Norway (5.4 million) + Finland (5.5 million): 10.9 million

Sweden COVID-19 Cases: 98,451
Norway (15,221) & Finland (11,580) COVID-19 Cases: 26,801

Sweden COVID-19 Deaths: 5,894
Norway (275) & Finland (346) COVID-19 Deaths: 621

Let's add Denmark in too, then you have all three countries that have a land border with Sweden ('Nordic' v Sweden)

Population: Sweden 10.3 million. 'Nordic' 16.7 million
Cases: Sweden 98,451. 'Nordic' 58,439
Deaths: Sweden 5,894. 'Nordic' 1,286

Around 62% higher population yet 60% fewer infections and one fifth of the deaths.

Perhaps you will be thinking more about the economy than the people?

Sweden's economy (GDP) -6.8% forecast in 2020
Denmark's economy (GDP) -6.5%
Norway's economy (GDP) -6.3%
Finland's economy (GDP) -6%

The worst performing infections. Worst performing deaths. Worst performing economy.

Now you have the facts, do you want to explain how well Sweden are doing?

https://covid19.who.int
https://www.nordeatrade.com/se/explore- ... al-context

[redrobo]

One should never argue with our IoM guru....he knows best about everything....

As someone has already suggested we should ALL obey the instructions to help not only ourselves but also others. Just a pity that certain elements in the big cities seem to ignore the advice....

[Keith]

One should never argue with our IoM guru....he knows best about everything....

Thing is, I don't know best about ANYTHING. And I know that I don't know best.

Because of that, I go and read the evidence from people who DO know best. I'll listen to the scientists & economists. I'll happily listen to contradictory evidence too. What I don't do, is give as much weight to someone on Twitter called 'ban the BBC' as the scientists who actually study this stuff properly. Check out the links I provided, interesting stuff.

And before Berlin Wailer comes back about how scientists don't know, 'cause they keep changing their mind' etc... Scientists change their opinion as they learn more. That's how science is supposed to work.

'Science doesn't know everything'
'Well, science knows it doesn't know everything. If it did, it would stop'.

[BerlinWaller]

Sweden are doing ok aren't they?

Do you get all your 'evidence' from Twitter?

No. Sweden are in a mess.Far more deaths & infections than neighbours Norway & Finland combined (which is a similar population & demographic).

Sweden: Population 10.3 million
Norway (5.4 million) + Finland (5.5 million): 10.9 million

Sweden COVID-19 Cases: 98,451
Norway (15,221) & Finland (11,580) COVID-19 Cases: 26,801

Sweden COVID-19 Deaths: 5,894
Norway (275) & Finland (346) COVID-19 Deaths: 621

Let's add Denmark in too, then you have all three countries that have a land border with Sweden ('Nordic' v Sweden)

Population: Sweden 10.3 million. 'Nordic' 16.7 million
Cases: Sweden 98,451. 'Nordic' 58,439
Deaths: Sweden 5,894. 'Nordic' 1,286

Around 62% higher population yet 60% fewer infections and one fifth of the deaths.

Perhaps you will be thinking more about the economy than the people?

Sweden's economy (GDP) -6.8% forecast in 2020
Denmark's economy (GDP) -6.5%
Norway's economy (GDP) -6.3%
Finland's economy (GDP) -6%

The worst performing infections. Worst performing deaths. Worst performing economy.

Now you have the facts, do you want to explain how well Sweden are doing?

https://covid19.who.int
https://www.nordeatrade.com/se/explore- ... al-context

l

I get my information from people/ media who post on Twitter, is that not a valid resource Keith?

Sweden is largely back to normal, there is a crowd at the F1 in Germany and has been for footy games for the last few weeks but we are staring down the barrel of another lockdown. All for a virus that kills people over the age of the national life expectancy.

[Keith]

I get my information from people/ media who post on Twitter, is that not a valid resource Keith?

No. It never has been.

on-the-internet-nobody-knows-921x1024.jpg (103.41 KiB) Viewed 711 times

[redrobo]

One should never argue with our IoM guru....he knows best about everything....

Thing is, I don't know best about ANYTHING. And I know that I don't know best.

Because of that, I go and read the evidence from people who DO know best. I'll listen to the scientists & economists. I'll happily listen to contradictory evidence too. What I don't do, is give as much weight to someone on Twitter called 'ban the BBC' as the scientists who actually study this stuff properly. Check out the links I provided, interesting stuff.

And before Berlin Wailer comes back about how scientists don't know, 'cause they keep changing their mind' etc... Scientists change their opinion as they learn more. That's how science is supposed to work.

'Science doesn't know everything'
'Well, science knows it doesn't know everything. If it did, it would stop'.

The same can be said about the Government but because they change the rules as the evidence changes they get slaughtered. Strange old world. All right for one sector to do it but for the Government....

[Keith]

Sweden is largely back to normal, there is a crowd at the F1 in Germany and has been for footy games for the last few weeks but we are staring down the barrel of another lockdown. All for a virus that kills people over the age of the national life expectancy.

So you are saying just kill off the old people. Well done. I didn't realise you were Dominic Cummings. Now you make sense. Well, you don't, but I can at least understand where you are coming from, as that was his policy originally.

Are you aware that it does kill people below the age of national life expectancy too?

Right, so now you can't defend Sweden, because the evidence shows they screwed up, you've moved to comparing the UK with Germany? Okay, you've got me. I cannot defend your incompetent, clueless government that have stumbled through this mess with no clear plan and no clear communication. Germany is led by a qualified scientist, Britain is led by someone sacked from the Daily Telegraph for deliberately lying and who made up crap about 'bendy bananas'. I wonder if that is where the difference is?

Under your policy, if older people (I'll leave you to tell us what age you consider 'old' to be) get COVID-19 and experience breathing problems, would you refuse them hospital admission and just let them die at home? If not, once they are in hospital and the beds are taken, what are you going to do when a car crash happens, resulting in casualties who need ICU in order to live? Would you take the older person off a ventilator and let them die? Or, would the car crash victims die because they were second to arrive at the hospital?

96% acute bed occupancy at the start of October and climbing. Tick-tock-tick-tock...

[Keith]

The same can be said about the Government but because they change the rules as the evidence changes they get slaughtered. Strange old world. All right for one sector to do it but for the Government....

Where are you making that up from?

When the government changes the rules on the basis of science AND CLEARLY COMMUNICATES THAT EVIDENCE I think most people would accept it. When the rules change because they suddenly realise that the "World Beating" Track & Trace system, that they gave millions of pounds to Dominic Cummings' friend, had fallen over because it had been written [very badly] on an Excel spreadsheet, they deserve absolutely panning!

The government *SHOULD* change and adapt as *EVIDENCE* comes to light.

The much abused Ferguson report back in March (the guy who said the 'worst case scenario would be'... then got panned because the 'worst case' didn't happen, which is why it was the 'worst case') suggested a series of 'lockdown' & 'open up' that was based upon ICU bed occupancy and a couple of other triggers.

The infections would have gone up & down through the summer. Other control measures (masks, hand washing, social distancing) would have been in place, but most of the time, businesses etc would have been open. It would have been a clear plan. By now, people would have been keeping an eye on hospital admissions and ICU bed occupancy. Increased ICU beds would have been in place. You'd all have been moving forward nicely. I bet even football matches would have been open to spectators by now. Instead, you have a Prime Minister who is so confused that when asked, he didn't even know what his own government's rules were. If the guy making the rules up doesn't even know what they are, what chance everyone else?

Apologies to Berlin Wailer, it is from Imperial College London rather than Twitter. That may make it a bit too long to read?

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperi ... 3-2020.pdf

[Morecambe Jack]

As of yesterday there were 2,858 patients in English Hospitals with COVID-19 (NB: Many likely to have been there for other reasons and caught it in hospital) - approximately 3 per hospital. Only 357 were on mechanical ventilation - say one for every three hospitals. As of 1 October only 10% of occupied mechanical ventilator beds (occupied, not capacity) were used by COVID-19 patients. On the same date, only 1.8% of hospital beds occupied were from COVID-19 (again, occupied beds, not capacity).

I think its reasonable not to start scaremongering like Keith is doing at this stage.

[Keith]

As of yesterday there were 2,858 patients in English Hospitals with COVID-19 (NB: Many likely to have been there for other reasons and caught it in hospital) - approximately 3 per hospital. Only 357 were on mechanical ventilation - say one for every three hospitals. As of 1 October only 10% of occupied mechanical ventilator beds (occupied, not capacity) were used by COVID-19 patients. On the same date, only 1.8% of hospital beds occupied were from COVID-19 (again, occupied beds, not capacity).

I think its reasonable not to start scaremongering like Keith is doing at this stage.

Can you please link to where this evidence is from? Not saying I think it is wrong, I'd just like to see where it is from.

[Morecambe Jack]

I source it from Twitter which might not meet your approval (https://twitter.com/UKCovid19Stats) but it looks like it is published on a website too - https://coronavstats.co.uk. It is purely data.

[Mark S]

When the government changes the rules on the basis of science AND CLEARLY COMMUNICATES THAT EVIDENCE I think most people would accept it. When the rules change because they suddenly realise that the "World Beating" Track & Trace system, that they gave millions of pounds to Dominic Cummings' friend, had fallen over because it had been written [very badly] on an Excel spreadsheet, they deserve absolutely panning!

It's Test & Trace, not Track & Trace. I know how you like to be accurate. Track & Trace is what the Post Office do to your parcels.

I will get back under my rock again now.

[HALMA 1983]

When the government changes the rules on the basis of science AND CLEARLY COMMUNICATES THAT EVIDENCE I think most people would accept it. When the rules change because they suddenly realise that the "World Beating" Track & Trace system, that they gave millions of pounds to Dominic Cummings' friend, had fallen over because it had been written [very badly] on an Excel spreadsheet, they deserve absolutely panning!

It's Test & Trace, not Track & Trace. I know how you like to be accurate. Track & Trace is what the Post Office do to your parcels.

I will get back under my rock again now.

You can tell Keith isn't an eBayer

[BerlinWaller]

Hi Keith, can you provide evidence and where you get your info please? You demand it from everybody else but I am yet to see you show anything to back up your stuff.

https://twitter.com/luigi_warren/status ... 74241?s=19


https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/131 ... 35808?s=19

https://twitter.com/MihrThakar/status/1 ... 25600?s=19

https://twitter.com/jneill/status/13152 ... 00865?s=19


I am sorry that these are all from Twitter Keith but it is the modern way.

[MFC-Manc]

In Australia 98% of people asked would take time off work if they had symptoms of COVID19, in the UK 10% said they would.....

Difference: Australia is offering full pay for people who are off with symptoms.

Only 1 in 5 people isolate when they should. (Symptoms, returning from holidays etc)

[Potted Shrimp]

What announcement are we expecting tomorrow? I think another national lockdown is highly unlikely.

[HALMA 1983]

In Australia 98% of people asked would take time off work if they had symptoms of COVID19, in the UK 10% said they would.....

Difference: Australia is offering full pay for people who are off with symptoms.

Only 1 in 5 people isolate when they should. (Symptoms, returning from holidays etc)

You can't compare this country to Australia
Can you imagine the clamour to be off if they gave folk full pay here and those stupid enough to go holidaying should be made to isolate without any pay at all
Too bloody soft for far too long, here lies the problem of our society nowadays