BerlinWaller wrote:That's lovely Keith but where is the 2nd wave on that graph?
Aa you have totally swerved the leaked Government dashboard regarding the shambles of processing tests or "cases" as they are now known, do you think Moonshot is our only hope of a return to normal?
The government's handling of this has been shambolic, I'm certainly not supporting them. Equally, pretending it isn't real is not useful either. There hasn't been a 'second wave' yet, partly because there are still control measures in place and partly because it isn't due yet. Viruses spread more easily indoors. During the summer months, we have more 'out door time', so less spread. During winter months, more indoor time, hence a spike in virus transmission during the winter. The second wave was always predicted to be later in the year/early next year.
Test & trace would appear to be the best answer, but would actually need to be managed correctly, rather than the mess that the government have currently created. A French virologist was interviewed on Channel Four News last week. Basically, she was saying that as Britain has been generally a couple of weeks behind France, the British government should be learning from France's errors and stop following them!
She suggested that one thing that can be done, is multiple samples being taken and checked as one. Twenty individuals are taken on one sample (
not the same swab in each other's mouths & noses!) This one sample is then processed. If a sample comes back positive, then the twenty people are all individually checked. If (for example) a university had 2,000 students and one was COVID-19 positive, it would only take 120 samples to find that one person, who could then self-isolate (
100 x 20 initial samples, then 20 follow up). This method would allow for wide spread testing which could be carried out weekly. As asymptomatic people are far less likely to spread the virus, this would be a quick, easy & relatively cheap way to allow universities (or work places) to continue operating while still managing the spread of the virus.
'
Flattening the curve' was the right policy. It isn't going to be eradicated. But not doing anything would have led to health services being overwhelmed. This have happened in the USA. A couple of weeks ago, there was a report from one area, (
a county in Florida I think, but not 100% sure and can't find the report now) that didn't have a solitary ICU bed empty. That means that someone with a condition completely unrelated to COVID-19 probably died following a car crash, sepsis or heart attack etc, simply due to a lack of an ICU bed.
Closing down the economy again is not a good idea. The only way around this is, as the French virologist (a '
proper doctor') suggests, mass, regular testing with individual isolation. Science has moved forwards a long way in six months. In March you had a less than 30% chance of surviving COVID-19 once you were admitted to ICU. By the start of August you had a greater than 70% survival. 'Normal' pneumonia has about 80% survival rate, so we're closing in, as doctors discover the best ways to treat patients who have the virus.
The government also need to stop with the inconsistent messaging. They also screwed up massively by not sacking Prime Minister Dominic Cummings after his wife's birthday journey to Durham and his eye test at Barnard Castle. From that moment, it was clear that a substantial proportion of the population thought 'bollocks to it' and compliance went down.
